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Why Seemingly Similar Companies Have Different Valuations?

Have you ever wondered why two seemingly identical companies are valued so differently in the market?  It is crucial to recognize that both magnitude and sustainability of cash flow play vital roles in determining valuation. This holds true even for valuation multiples that appear to focus more on assets, such as the price-to-book ratio (P/B). This ratio is fundamentally also linked with the cash flow of the entity. Essentially, given the same risk level, the longer and more robust the cash flow generated by a business, the higher its expected valuation.

The magnitude of cash flow on valuation

Despite potential variations in accounting treatment, the magnitude of cash flow is mainly influenced by earnings capabilities and growth rate of earnings (or market participants view towards them). For example, Companies targeting the premium market segment often exhibit higher net profit margins, leading to greater cash flow attributable to equity holders. A notable example is Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS, 贵州茅台) with market capitalization of over HKD 2Trillian and other premium brands. In 2023, Moutai had 50% net profit margin compared with 43% of Luzhou laojiao (000568.SZ, 泸州老窖). Despite having similar return on equity (ROE) ~35% in 2023, Moutai traded at a higher forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24x compared with Luzhou Laojiao’s 16x, based on the data provided by S&P CIQ. Moutai’s deep-rooted premium brand image, strong capability to generate cash and strong bargaining power with consumers and distributors contributed to the valuation premium.

The sustainability of cash flow on valuation

Furthermore, a company that possesses valuable inherent qualities such as strong branding, innovation, product development capabilities, and a high-quality management team typically indicates more sustainable cash flow, thus commanding a higher valuation than a company whose profitability is heavily influenced by external factors such as fluctuating commodities prices, clients with strong bargaining power, and homogeneous competitions. The presence of these inherent qualities enhances the stability and predictability of cash flow, thereby contributing to a higher valuation for the company. In short, the “endogenous” factors boosting cash flow are more valuable than the “exogenous” factors in most valuation cases.

For instance, consider two restaurants that are experiencing significant growth and have same return on equity (ROE). The first restaurant’s profitability is primarily attributed to its advantageous geographical location, while the second restaurant’s profitability stems from its inventive and unique dishes. Despite both restaurants having similar levels of profitability, the second restaurant might receive a higher valuation. This can be attributed to the facts that product innovation possesses inherent barriers and the replicability of those innovation and incentives to new stores opening, making it a distinguishing factor that adds value to the business.

Also, the valuation of two companies with comparable free cash flows can differ if there are variations in the levels of non-operating assets and liabilities or debt, which need to be adjusted when calculating equity value.

Why It Matters

Understanding these valuation differences can benefit investors, business owners, and other stakeholders by providing insights into what drives a company’s market value. Recognizing the importance of strong cash flows, inherent qualities, and the right adjustments can lead to more informed investment and business decisions.

Curious about your company’s valuation? Contact BonVision today for a comprehensive valuation analysis and see how we can help you unlock your company’s true value.

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